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| Rival anti-government and pro-government marches in Bangkok have become increasingly violent, with the police and military often caught in the middle. |
The world seems to currently be saturated with popular protest movements in a way not seen since the 1980s. At the dawn of that decade, the Solidarity movement in Poland was the genesis of popular protests in Eastern Europe that would later bring down the Warsaw Pact, citizens of South Korea and Taiwan were engaging in demonstrations against oppressive military dictatorships in both countries, and dissidents across Latin America were standing up against the military juntas and corrupt autocrats that had come into power all over the region during the Cold War.
A series of vintage TV news reports on the 1980 Gwangju Uprising in South Korea.
What's important to keep in mind is that these movements did not reach their goal overnight. Many in the West have criticized the Arab Spring uprisings in the Mideast for failing to create a flowering of liberal democracies overnight, but expecting as much was unrealistic and ridiculous. The aforementioned movements of the early '80s took nearly a decade to accomplish their aims, and there isn't any reason to expect the protest movements of today to fair any better. There are however major differences affecting the bulk of the protest movements today that were not present in the '80s. While movements at that time in eastern Europe and elsewhere were fueled by overwhelming popular discontent and apathy, or at times even support, from state security apparatuses and armies that were often just as fed up with their leadership as the protestors, anti-government movements today in places like Thailand and Venezuela face opposition from pro-government groups who are just as determined as they are. It's all led to the creation of several powder kegs that may not get the publicity currently enjoyed by the Ukrainian crisis, but are in many ways just as potentially volatile.
Venezuela
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| A protest largely made up of newspaper workers and journalists in Caracas in February of 2014 |
While certain Western news outlets have characterized the ongoing anti-government protests in Venezuela which began late last year as a Left vs Right conflict, the reality is far more complicated. The majority of those who first took to the streets were members of student organizations with far from right-wing ideologies who'd been protesting since Hugo Chavez was still in office. Moreover, the majority of the opposition politicians (including the most prominent opposition Presidential candidate in the last election, Henrique Capriles) who have gotten behind the protests are leftists themselves, which makes the regime's characterization of them as "fascists" completely laughable. The genuine incompetence of the Maduro Administration, a stagnant economy weighed down by inflation and a skyrocketing rate of violent crime in Venezuela's cities have led many who even previously voted for Maduro and Hugo Chavez to take to the streets. On the other hand, this is very much a divided country. Maduro still enjoys unwavering support from a large portion of Venezuela's urban and rural poor, along with the military, police and the National Bolivarian Militia, a "political army" created by the late Chavez that's over one hundred thousand strong. The government is also allegedly using armed pro-Maduro partisans known as "Colectivos" to discourage the protestors. Their favorite tactic seems to be riding into protests on motorbikes and beating the hell out of anyone unfortunate enough to get too close with blunt instruments.
This is also a situation where the anti-government vs pro-government mob dynamic mentioned above is in effect, which complicates things to no end. Venezuela is a country where guns and heavier ordinance are easily obtainable, due to the porous borders with Colombia and Brazil, corruption in the police and military ranks and the strong presence of organized crime in the region. This would make escalating an already violent and volatile situation into a civil war relatively easy for an interested party on either side of the divide. The bulk of the opposition does seem to believe that isn't the answer, thankfully. In all likelihood, Maduro will lose the next Venezuelan presidential election unless he finds some way to engineer a miracle economic turnaround. Would an Egypt-style coup/popular overthrow of the current government be justified? Probably. However, as we've seen in Egypt, such actions often just create more problems for a country already dealing with turmoil. Hopefully Maduro will be smart enough to stop characterizing a legitimate show of popular discontent as a US-orchestrated coup plot, and actually engage in some sort of real dialogue with his opposition. His prior actions as leader of Venezuela don't lend much hope to that option, unfortunately.
Thailand
Thailand is another place where deeply divided public opinion has manifested itself in the form of rival street protests. Yingluck Shinawatra, the Prime Minister until she was barred from the job by Thailand's highest court, is the younger sister of the country's deeply polarizing former PM, Thaksin Shinawatra. Not too long ago, Thaksin was the richest man in Thailand, a media and corporate mogul whose rise to power was not all that different from fellow billionaire Silvio Berlusconi's in Italy. His appeal was strong for the many millions of rural voters living away from the financial hub of Bangkok who saw him as a self-made success challenging the political establishment. The generous subsidies he promised to the nation's many farmers also helped his appeal there. On the other hand, many in the capitol and in other areas of the country where manufacturing, the tech sector and other fields are the largest employers saw Shinawatra as a corrupt, opportunistic populist whose rise to power had been due to basically buying the votes of millions of rural and poor Thais. This led to Thaksin being overthrown in a military coup backed by a significant portion of the Thai public (not unlike the recent coup to unseat Mohammed Morsi in Egypt) in 2006, with tacit support from the King of Thailand. The country is a constitutional monarchy where the duties of royalty are largely ceremonial, but the King undoubtedly enjoys more popular support than any member of either major political party. The forces that brought Shinawatra down still found it impossible to quell his appeal, and 2011 saw a new party headed by his younger sister Yingluck come to power. Much of her support came from former Thaksin voters living in the same areas, and her opposition was again largely made up of Thailand's middle and upper-class living in the Southern part of the country.
From the beginning, Mrs. Shinawatra's government not only faced roadblocks from a less than enthusiastic Thai royal family, military and judiciary, but organized street protests as well. The country, and especially the capitol, became divided between "Yellow Shirts" opposed to the Shinawatra family, and "Red Shirts" who revere Thaksin and Yingluck with a near religious fervor. Since late 2013, both sides have engaged in almost daily mass marches in and around Bangkok and have developed armed wings to complement their respective movements. The opinion of many Thais on the ground is that the military remains loyal to the royalty and the Yellow Shirts, while most of the police support the Red Shirts thanks to the increased pay and benefits they were given under the Shinawatras. As in Venezuela, despite a lot of rhetoric in support of open violence by both sides, the situation has yet to develop into a full civil war. Secession talk from the Shinawatra's stronghold in Northern Thailand, where their hometown of Chiang Mai is located, has been going on for awhile now, but it appears unlikely to amount to any action. A break-up of Thailand would be economically disastrous not just for the country itself, but for the whole of Southeast Asia. As of May 22, 2014 the Thai Army has yet again declared a state of emergency and suspended the constitution. This is a fairly common event in Thailand and one that is likely welcomed by many of the Yellow Shirts, but it again speaks to the fragility of democracy in the country.
Continuing chaos in North and West Africa
This is also a situation where the anti-government vs pro-government mob dynamic mentioned above is in effect, which complicates things to no end. Venezuela is a country where guns and heavier ordinance are easily obtainable, due to the porous borders with Colombia and Brazil, corruption in the police and military ranks and the strong presence of organized crime in the region. This would make escalating an already violent and volatile situation into a civil war relatively easy for an interested party on either side of the divide. The bulk of the opposition does seem to believe that isn't the answer, thankfully. In all likelihood, Maduro will lose the next Venezuelan presidential election unless he finds some way to engineer a miracle economic turnaround. Would an Egypt-style coup/popular overthrow of the current government be justified? Probably. However, as we've seen in Egypt, such actions often just create more problems for a country already dealing with turmoil. Hopefully Maduro will be smart enough to stop characterizing a legitimate show of popular discontent as a US-orchestrated coup plot, and actually engage in some sort of real dialogue with his opposition. His prior actions as leader of Venezuela don't lend much hope to that option, unfortunately.
Thailand
A Vice News report on the protests and unrest in Bangkok
Thailand is another place where deeply divided public opinion has manifested itself in the form of rival street protests. Yingluck Shinawatra, the Prime Minister until she was barred from the job by Thailand's highest court, is the younger sister of the country's deeply polarizing former PM, Thaksin Shinawatra. Not too long ago, Thaksin was the richest man in Thailand, a media and corporate mogul whose rise to power was not all that different from fellow billionaire Silvio Berlusconi's in Italy. His appeal was strong for the many millions of rural voters living away from the financial hub of Bangkok who saw him as a self-made success challenging the political establishment. The generous subsidies he promised to the nation's many farmers also helped his appeal there. On the other hand, many in the capitol and in other areas of the country where manufacturing, the tech sector and other fields are the largest employers saw Shinawatra as a corrupt, opportunistic populist whose rise to power had been due to basically buying the votes of millions of rural and poor Thais. This led to Thaksin being overthrown in a military coup backed by a significant portion of the Thai public (not unlike the recent coup to unseat Mohammed Morsi in Egypt) in 2006, with tacit support from the King of Thailand. The country is a constitutional monarchy where the duties of royalty are largely ceremonial, but the King undoubtedly enjoys more popular support than any member of either major political party. The forces that brought Shinawatra down still found it impossible to quell his appeal, and 2011 saw a new party headed by his younger sister Yingluck come to power. Much of her support came from former Thaksin voters living in the same areas, and her opposition was again largely made up of Thailand's middle and upper-class living in the Southern part of the country.
From the beginning, Mrs. Shinawatra's government not only faced roadblocks from a less than enthusiastic Thai royal family, military and judiciary, but organized street protests as well. The country, and especially the capitol, became divided between "Yellow Shirts" opposed to the Shinawatra family, and "Red Shirts" who revere Thaksin and Yingluck with a near religious fervor. Since late 2013, both sides have engaged in almost daily mass marches in and around Bangkok and have developed armed wings to complement their respective movements. The opinion of many Thais on the ground is that the military remains loyal to the royalty and the Yellow Shirts, while most of the police support the Red Shirts thanks to the increased pay and benefits they were given under the Shinawatras. As in Venezuela, despite a lot of rhetoric in support of open violence by both sides, the situation has yet to develop into a full civil war. Secession talk from the Shinawatra's stronghold in Northern Thailand, where their hometown of Chiang Mai is located, has been going on for awhile now, but it appears unlikely to amount to any action. A break-up of Thailand would be economically disastrous not just for the country itself, but for the whole of Southeast Asia. As of May 22, 2014 the Thai Army has yet again declared a state of emergency and suspended the constitution. This is a fairly common event in Thailand and one that is likely welcomed by many of the Yellow Shirts, but it again speaks to the fragility of democracy in the country.
Continuing chaos in North and West Africa
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| Boko Haram, continuing to live up to its goal of becoming the "African Taliban" |
Despite Boko Haram being arguably the most brazen and dangerous terrorist group in West Africa for around five years now, they'd largely escaped the attention of many Westerners until they kidnapped over 200 young women from a girl's school in the town of Chibok about a month ago. The reality of the situation in Northern Nigeria is that Boko Haram has turned the area into a war zone.Though they seem to look up to the Taliban, they've demonstrated an even greater operational capacity than that group over the past year or two. While the Taliban is currently on the run from three different nation's armies and riven by internal conflict, Boko Haram seems dedicated to a singular goal of turning Nigeria into an Islamic Emirate governed by Sharia law, and the Nigerian military has fallen short in nearly every effort made to combat the group. Boko Haram has been responsible for bombings and shootings in the capitol city of Abuja, along with near daily raids on rural villages in Nigeria's North, demonstrating their capacity to impact both Nigeria's central government and the lives of the average citizen with relative impunity.
One of the reasons this is possible is that since the '90s Nigeria's elected officials have worked to make the possibility of the military coups which plagued the nation throughout the 20th century less likely by restricting the power and size of the military, and cutting arms spending. This has had the unwanted side effect of leaving their military incapable and unprepared to secure an Eastern border area covered in rainforest and wetlands. Another aspect of the problem is Nigeria's religious and ethnic divide between the largely Christian and urbanized West and Southwest, and the largely Muslim and rural North and East. In the years since the end of military rule, the political leadership of Nigeria has rotated between Christian and Muslim-dominated governments. There is now concern, justified or otherwise, from the Muslim population that President Goodluck Johnathan will upset this balance, and use the deteriorating security situation as justification for declaring a state of emergency so he's able to stay on after the end of his current term. As of mid-June, the kidnapped girls are still unaccounted for and Boko Haram is still freely operating in Northern Nigeria and border regions of Cameroon. It doesn't look like the situation will change anytime soon.
The myriad problems I covered in my previous blog focusing on this region are still plaguing other countries, as well. After slipping into the ether following a combined offensive by Malian and French troops, Islamist rebels in Northern Mali have again reared their head and chased the national army from the regional hub of Kidal. In the Central African Republic, the largest humanitarian crisis on the continent is being spurred on by civil conflict which now has entered a frightening phase of sectarian violence, pitting Christian against Muslim. In Libya, a general who was Gaddafi's right hand man prior to a falling out in the '90s has launched a campaign, independent of any oversight or direction from the central government, to drive Islamist militias out of cities like Misrata and Benghazi. While many civilians in those cities support his aims, they're also understandably leery of a guy who was a high-ranking member of a repressive dictatorship for years.
I have no idea how any of these crises will turn out, and I'm not advocating any sweeping direct action from Western powers regarding any of them. However, when a conflict that evokes the heady days of US vs Russia tensions in the 20th century erupts, it's easy to forget that there are many areas just as volatile, if not more, than the Eastern Ukraine is at the moment. Despite events like the recent downing of a transport plane by separatists armed with Russian surface-to-air missiles that killed 49 Ukrainian soldiers, the militias holding parts of that country hostage have had their asses handed to them in most of their engagements with Ukraine's regular army. I don't foresee the instability there lasting much longer, while on the other hand the situations elsewhere I've highlighted have already been going on for years. Hopefully nobody will still be writing about them a few years from now.
Sources
Support for Nicolas Maduro drops to 37%: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-venezuela-politics-idUSBREA440HH20140505
Islamist violence in the Sahel: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27930747
Thailand court ousts Prime Minister: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0507/Thailand-court-ousts-prime-minister-making-more-turmoil-likely-video
Thailand under curfew: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27527927
Vice's excellent Russian Roulette series of reports: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlLN9E2kcY
Nigerian President vows "total war" against Boko Haram: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27619290
Everyone in Venezuela isn't protesting for the same reasons: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/venezuela/140212/everyone-venezuela-protesting-toilet-paper-maduro-chavez
War crimes committed in the Central African Republic: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27727465
Rogue Libya General's forces bomb Islamist camp: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27610768
Libya Congress to vote after renegade General's threat: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/25/us-libya-crisis-idUSBREA4O05R20140525
The Venezuela Rising series of reports from Vice News: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U6OfjxTPPQ&list=PLw613M86o5o7JMOImqZ6tGwK7kkzufe0S
One of the reasons this is possible is that since the '90s Nigeria's elected officials have worked to make the possibility of the military coups which plagued the nation throughout the 20th century less likely by restricting the power and size of the military, and cutting arms spending. This has had the unwanted side effect of leaving their military incapable and unprepared to secure an Eastern border area covered in rainforest and wetlands. Another aspect of the problem is Nigeria's religious and ethnic divide between the largely Christian and urbanized West and Southwest, and the largely Muslim and rural North and East. In the years since the end of military rule, the political leadership of Nigeria has rotated between Christian and Muslim-dominated governments. There is now concern, justified or otherwise, from the Muslim population that President Goodluck Johnathan will upset this balance, and use the deteriorating security situation as justification for declaring a state of emergency so he's able to stay on after the end of his current term. As of mid-June, the kidnapped girls are still unaccounted for and Boko Haram is still freely operating in Northern Nigeria and border regions of Cameroon. It doesn't look like the situation will change anytime soon.
The myriad problems I covered in my previous blog focusing on this region are still plaguing other countries, as well. After slipping into the ether following a combined offensive by Malian and French troops, Islamist rebels in Northern Mali have again reared their head and chased the national army from the regional hub of Kidal. In the Central African Republic, the largest humanitarian crisis on the continent is being spurred on by civil conflict which now has entered a frightening phase of sectarian violence, pitting Christian against Muslim. In Libya, a general who was Gaddafi's right hand man prior to a falling out in the '90s has launched a campaign, independent of any oversight or direction from the central government, to drive Islamist militias out of cities like Misrata and Benghazi. While many civilians in those cities support his aims, they're also understandably leery of a guy who was a high-ranking member of a repressive dictatorship for years.
I have no idea how any of these crises will turn out, and I'm not advocating any sweeping direct action from Western powers regarding any of them. However, when a conflict that evokes the heady days of US vs Russia tensions in the 20th century erupts, it's easy to forget that there are many areas just as volatile, if not more, than the Eastern Ukraine is at the moment. Despite events like the recent downing of a transport plane by separatists armed with Russian surface-to-air missiles that killed 49 Ukrainian soldiers, the militias holding parts of that country hostage have had their asses handed to them in most of their engagements with Ukraine's regular army. I don't foresee the instability there lasting much longer, while on the other hand the situations elsewhere I've highlighted have already been going on for years. Hopefully nobody will still be writing about them a few years from now.
Sources
Support for Nicolas Maduro drops to 37%: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/05/us-venezuela-politics-idUSBREA440HH20140505
Islamist violence in the Sahel: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27930747
Thailand court ousts Prime Minister: http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0507/Thailand-court-ousts-prime-minister-making-more-turmoil-likely-video
Thailand under curfew: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-27527927
Vice's excellent Russian Roulette series of reports: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFlLN9E2kcY
Nigerian President vows "total war" against Boko Haram: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27619290
Everyone in Venezuela isn't protesting for the same reasons: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/venezuela/140212/everyone-venezuela-protesting-toilet-paper-maduro-chavez
War crimes committed in the Central African Republic: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27727465
Rogue Libya General's forces bomb Islamist camp: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-27610768
Libya Congress to vote after renegade General's threat: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/25/us-libya-crisis-idUSBREA4O05R20140525
The Venezuela Rising series of reports from Vice News: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9U6OfjxTPPQ&list=PLw613M86o5o7JMOImqZ6tGwK7kkzufe0S
